Giannis traded to Heat: Grades, reaction, Bucks’ next steps

At long last, the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade saga is over. On Monday night, the Milwaukee Bucks agreed to trade the two-time MVP, along with Bobby Portis, to the Miami Heat for Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first-round picks (including No. 13 this year), one pick swap and one second-rounder, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.

Which franchise won the long-awaited blockbuster? Will Antetokounmpo boost the Heat back to title contention? Is the Bucks’ rebuild off to a strong start?

ESPN insiders Zach Kram and Ben Golliver are examining the deal from every angle, including trade grades, as well as the biggest winners and losers in its aftermath.

Jump to a section:
Grading the trade
Winners and losers

Miami Heat: B-

The Miami Heat have a reputation as a destination for the stars — but it has been quite a while since they landed one. The last time any Heat player finished higher than 10th in MVP voting was 2013-14, when LeBron James was the runner-up.

Since then, Miami’s biggest acquisitions are Jimmy Butler III and lower-level stars such as Goran Dragic, post-prime Kyle Lowry and Terry Rozier. The Heat were routinely in rumors involving superstars, but didn’t turn those hypotheticals into reality.

That inability to close showed on the court. The Heat have reached 50 wins just once in 12 seasons since LeBron left after the 2014 Finals, and they’ve been stuck in play-in territory four seasons in a row. Two Finals appearances in that span — including one marvelous run as the No. 8 seed — helped mask Miami’s mediocrity, but this is a team that has been searching for a higher level for a while.

Since the Heat’s Finals appearance in 2023, they’re 1-8 with a minus-22.2 point differential in the playoffs.

The Heat’s struggles of late have been concentrated on offense, finishing in the top half of the league in offensive rating just three times in the past decade. One of those instances was last season, when a radical new offensive system predicated on speed and movement boosted the Heat to 12th, but that still couldn’t elevate them above the play-in.

Enter Antetokounmpo, who can generate elite offense. The Bucks had an above-average offense every season from 2016-17 through 2024-25, and they were top seven in six out of seven seasons during Antetokounmpo’s streak of making the All-NBA first team, per Cleaning the Glass.

Antetokounmpo is the do-it-all superstar whom Miami hasn’t had since peak LeBron and Dwyane Wade were playing together. Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged more than 34 points and 12 rebounds per 36 minutes. That has happened only on three other occasions in NBA history, according to Stathead: once by Wilt Chamberlain, and two other times by Antetokounmpo.

More broadly, Antetokounmpo has averaged at least 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists per 36 minutes for eight seasons in a row. Only three other players have done so even once: Russell Westbrook in 2016-17, Luka Doncic in 2019-20 and Joel Embiid in 2023-24.

Antetokounmpo should fix the Heat’s longstanding issue of putting pressure on the rim. For five seasons in a row, the Heat have ranked among the bottom 10 teams in shots in the restricted area, per GeniusIQ tracking, but Antetokounmpo has led the league in made shots in the restricted area in all five of those seasons.

His average shot distance last season was 7.3 feet, per GeniusIQ — the lowest single-season mark of his career. Antetokounmpo’s three shortest average shot distances have all come in the past three seasons, as he has leaned into his strengths and largely given up on forcing 3-pointers.

Average Shot Distance for Giannis Antetokounmpo (feet)

Fortuitously for Miami, at the same time that Antetokounmpo has given up his 3-point shot, Bam Adebayo has adopted one, which offers more confidence that the two big men can coexist on offense.

There will still likely be growing pains, particularly if opposing defenses go under pick-and-rolls and switch actions involving that star duo. Adebayo’s 3-point stroke (32% last season) is less dangerous than an Antetokounmpo drive. But the two should complement each other decently well.

3-Point Attempt Rate

Despite not winning an MVP award since 2020, every major public all-in-one advanced stat indicates that Antetokounmpo remains a top-five player — typically in fourth or fifth place, rather than still challenging for the title of best player in the league.

Antetokounmpo made the All-NBA first team seven seasons in a row from 2018-19 through 2024-25, before missing out because he played only 36 games last season, and his MVP finishes over that span were: first, first, fourth, third, third, fourth, third.

The question, though, is how much longer can the Heat expect him to remain a top-five player? For 2026-27, almost certainly. But what about 2027-28 and beyond, when Antetokounmpo might be playing on a new max extension worth $275 million over four years, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks?

Antetokounmpo is 31 years old and will soon enter his 14th NBA season. He’ll cross the 30,000-minute threshold early this upcoming season. This is about the age at which the best power forwards this century started noticeable declines from their peaks.

Granted, other star veterans in this era — LeBron, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant — are breaking traditional aging curves. Antetokounmpo could do the same. But he has already shown a worrying injury proclivity, even in his prime: Antetokounmpo has exceeded 67 games in the regular season just once this decade (73 games in 2023-24), and he missed at least one playoff game in 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024.

He has already exhibited slippage on one end of the court. At his defensive peak, he averaged at least one steal and one block per game every season from 2015-16 through 2021-22. But he didn’t reach one steal or one block per game last season. And after being named to the All-Defense first team four years in a row — and winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2019-20 — Antetokounmpo hasn’t made any All-Defense teams over the past four seasons.

That track record suggests that the Heat’s window to win with Antetokounmpo is fairly narrow, which means they have to be good enough to win a championship right away. Are they?

For now, it seems as if Miami will enter the 2026-27 campaign with a starting lineup of Adebayo, Antetokounmpo, Andrew Wiggins (assuming he stays with Miami, given his $30.2 million player option), Norman Powell (assuming he re-signs, now that his fit next to Herro isn’t a concern) and Davion Mitchell. The bench will include Portis, Nikola Jovic and Pelle Larsson, presumably rounded out by the sort of depth finds with which Miami specializes.

That roster is good and balanced, if relatively light on shooting. But does it make the Heat better than the title-winning Knicks? Than the Celtics, after they supplement their core this summer? Than the 60-win Pistons, or the Pacers with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac, or even the Cavaliers?

The Heat have vaulted themselves out of the play-in pack with their biggest star acquisition since LeBron’s famous Decision in 2010. This is a move they almost had to make, given how they performed without a true cornerstone.

But it’s also a move that leaves the Heat with almost no valuable draft assets they can use for additional upgrades — if their roster isn’t title-worthy as is — and not much time to execute on their championship ambitions. It’s a massive risk without any guaranteed reward.

Milwaukee Bucks: B+

Antetokounmpo’s departure closes the book on what is inarguably the greatest individual career in Milwaukee Bucks history. The former No. 15 pick is the franchise’s leader in almost every major statistic: games, minutes, points, rebounds, assists, blocks, field goals and free throws. He has 56 triple-doubles for Milwaukee; no other Buck is even in double digits. He’s a 10-time All-Star, two-time MVP and one-time Finals MVP after scoring 50 points to close out the Bucks’ first title in 50 years.

But it was long past time for him and the team to move on. After years of untimely injuries (Khris Middleton in 2022), ill-fated transactions (the Damian Lillard trade) and wasted drafts (the last Bucks pick to make a real impact for the team was Donte DiVincenzo, who was drafted eight years ago), the Bucks were no longer a legitimate contender, even with Antetokounmpo still receiving MVP votes.

Over the past four seasons, 15 teams won at least one first-round series. The Bucks weren’t one of them.

And looking ahead, the Bucks possessed few draft assets — they don’t control their first-round pick in 2027, 2028, 2029 or 2030 — and little financial flexibility, after they waived and stretched Lillard’s contract last summer.

So, grading the Bucks’ side of this deal is less about judging whether they should have traded their superstar, and more about judging the return.

Unable to entice, say, the Cavaliers to swap young star Evan Mobley for Antetokounmpo or the Magic to deal Paolo Banchero, the Bucks ended up without an obvious centerpiece in the package coming from Miami.

The Bucks landed a late lottery pick in this year’s deep draft (to pair with their selection at No. 10), as well as unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a pick swap in 2030 and a 2033 second-rounder. Those picks would likely be more valuable under the league’s new lottery rules because it’s unlikely to imagine the Heat bottoming out in that span.

The Bucks also added the Heat’s two most recent first-round picks, Ware (No. 15 in 2024) and Jakucionis (No. 20 in 2025), who both have promise even if they haven’t yet broken out at the NBA level. Ware is especially tantalizing, as an athletic 7-footer with a career 37% 3-point stroke.

They also acquired Jaquez, the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up, and Herro, who might bring back further draft capital if the Bucks seek to flip him to a third team, much as the Portland Trail Blazers did with Jrue Holiday after the Lillard trade. The Bucks should pursue this route, despite Herro being a Milwaukee native, because he’s a free agent after the 2026-27 season and would be much more valuable to a contender next season than to the rebuilding Bucks.

All in all, that’s a large collection of lottery tickets that might cash in and help the Bucks build their next contending core, several years down the line. They didn’t extract as large a return as they might have had they dealt Antetokounmpo in an earlier window, when he might have brought back a package with more picks and more valuable present-day players, such as what Brooklyn received from Phoenix for Kevin Durant.

Accounting for that lost time, however, the Bucks just about maximized their value in this trade. Dealing the best player in franchise history is bound to hurt. But they ultimately made out well, given the circumstances, and their long path back to contention might have begun Monday night. — Zach Kram

Winners and losers of the deal

This is a day of profound sadness for Bucks fans, who watched Antetokounmpo blossom from an unheralded, lanky teenager into an imposing NBA champion and two-time MVP. Antetokounmpo departs Milwaukee as the franchise’s all-time leader in most major categories, and only Warriors stars Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have longer active tenures with one franchise than his 13-year run with the Bucks.

However, as painful as this move is, the Bucks can find a sense of closure knowing they exhausted every possibility to make it work with Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee rightfully concluded it was better off launching a rebuild rather than trying to coax Antetokounmpo into signing another extension without the means to surround him with sufficient talent.

The Bucks deserve credit for trading Antetokounmpo, but their return package clearly reflects that they waited too long to do so. Milwaukee didn’t land an elite individual talent in return, and it will need to wait five years for its best draft assets to convey.

The Bucks now project to be one of the NBA’s worst teams in 2026-27, a common predicament for teams immediately after they trade franchise players. Unfortunately, Milwaukee’s return leaves it without a clear timeline for a return to relevance. The Rockets needed four years after trading James Harden to get back to the playoffs, and the Nets haven’t been back in the three full seasons since they traded Kevin Durant. Will Milwaukee be condemned to a similarly arduous turnaround period?

Let’s play out an alternate scenario: What if the Bucks had proactively traded Antetokounmpo last summer, kept an injured Damian Lillard on their books and passed on signing Myles Turner? They likely would have a top-five pick in Tuesday’s draft and a superior return package for Antetokounmpo, plus they wouldn’t owe Turner $84 million over the next three seasons. There’s no way around the second-guessing: Milwaukee’s polarizing decision to take one last shot with Antetokounmpo was a costly mistake.

Antetokounmpo spent his last years with the Bucks consumed by trade rumors and insisting that he wanted to remain loyal to Milwaukee if possible. The dream of being Brew City’s Dirk Nowitzki is now over, but Antetokounmpo can look forward to playing his next chapter for a Heat organization that has a track record of instant success after landing superstars.

After acquiring LeBron James and Chris Bosh in 2010 free agency, the Heat went to the next four Finals and won two championships. And after signing Jimmy Butler in 2019, the Heat made the Finals in two of the next four seasons. Antetokounmpo knows Miami well: Butler and the Heat knocked the Bucks out of the playoffs in 2020 and 2023 en route to winning the East.

In addition to South Beach’s weather and lifestyle advantages, Antetokounmpo should see eye-to-eye with Erik Spoelstra, the Heat’s no-nonsense coach. Antetokounmpo needs a second championship to separate himself from peers such as Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum, and Spoelstra is still seeking his first ring since James’ departure in 2014.

With Miami coming off a respectable 43-win campaign and Antetokounmpo motivated to make a good first impression, the Heat have enough proven talent to claim a spot in the East’s second tier of contenders. Though Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo might need some time to find an effective fit on offense, they should form a sturdy defensive backbone from Day 1. Even with Herro and Jaquez departing, Antetokounmpo will join a Heat roster with more talent on paper than any of his Bucks teams since 2022.

After the Celtics were heavily linked in Antetokounmpo rumors this week, they ultimately watched as their Eastern Conference rivals won the bidding war. The rest of the league should be relieved: Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum would have given the Celtics the best one-two punch in the NBA. The Celtics could have desperately used Antetokounmpo’s downhill attacks to balance an offense that became overly 3-point dependent during its first-round flameout, and he also would have helped address some of the Celtics’ interior defense problems. Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens must now sort through his options with Jaylen Brown: Does he find another trade or try to mend fences?

Winner: Taylor Jenkins

Life wasn’t easy for Antetokounmpo’s last three coaches in Milwaukee: Mike Budenholzer was fired for failing to live up to championship expectations when a 58-win season ended with a first-round exit in 2023, Adrian Griffin barely lasted half a season as Budenholzer’s replacement, and Doc Rivers departed in April after another injury-plagued campaign.

Despite his otherworldly talent, Antetokounmpo’s ball-dominant style, persistent health concerns and unhappiness with Milwaukee’s direction would have put Jenkins in a tough spot. Instead of juggling those pressures, Jenkins should enjoy a long runway for a rebuilding movement, similar to the one he oversaw with the Grizzlies from 2019 to 2025. Jenkins’ experience establishing a hard-playing culture and building a consistent winner in a small market makes him a natural fit in Milwaukee.

Antetokounmpo’s murky future was a known risk when Turner left the Pacers after reaching the 2025 Finals to sign a four-year, $109 million contract with the Bucks. At the time, he said “staying competitive” was a driving factor in his Milwaukee move.

Less than one year later, Antetokounmpo is gone, Milwaukee is poised to plummet in the standings and Indiana is ready to bounce back once Tyrese Haliburton returns from a right Achilles injury. Turner’s first season with the Bucks was forgettable, and Milwaukee must decide now whether it’s better off keeping him or trying to trade him to aid its rebuilding effort. The grass sure looks greener in Indianapolis.

Two seasons ago, Heat president Pat Riley triggered an intense standoff with Jimmy Butler by refusing to give the star forward a lucrative contract extension. Though that strategy led to a 2025 first-round playoff exit and a 2026 lottery trip, it positioned the Heat to strike for a younger and more accomplished star in Antetokounmpo.

The Heat’s final trade package was stocked with desirable players and picks, but it didn’t represent a backbreaking price. If the rest of the summer goes well, Miami should enter next season with a starting lineup featuring Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins. That group boasts enough offensive firepower, defensive versatility and playoff experience for a successful launch. From there, Riley can expect three or four more years of prime production from Antetokounmpo, plenty of time to construct a rotation capable of competing at the highest level.

Reigning champions always root against blockbuster trades that have the potential to shake up the title landscape. The Heat aren’t yet top-tier threats to the Knicks, who hold a clear chemistry advantage and have a more talented starting lineup. Still, Antetokounmpo is a better individual player than anyone New York faced in the Eastern Conference playoffs this year. Throw in Miami’s excellent coaching and knack for maximizing its stars, and the Knicks’ title defense just got trickier.

As part of a 2023 trade for Damian Lillard, the Blazers own the Bucks’ 2029 first-round pick and hold first-round pick swaps in 2028 and 2030. Those assets jumped in value now that Antetokounmpo has been traded and Milwaukee appears headed for a slower approach to rebuilding after its deal with Miami. Of course, Portland’s extra assets would have been even more valuable if the NBA hadn’t instituted new rules that flatten the lottery odds and penalize the league’s worst teams. — Ben Golliver