Highlights: SpaceX Starship finds mixed success in V3 debut

CNN asked two space investment insiders — Phil Scully, general partner with Balerion Space Ventures, and Andrew Chanin, CEO of the investment firm ProcureAM — for their take on the race between SpaceX and Blue Origin to get NASA a vehicle capable of ferrying astronauts from lunar orbit down to the moon.

SpaceX is putting up Starship for the task while Blue Origin is developing a more straightforward vehicle, called Blue Moon, which is far more similar to Apollo-style landers, such as the famed Eagle.

Here’s what Scully and Chanin — in separate email interviews that have been lightly edited for clarity — had to say:

Do you think Blue Moon or Starship will conduct the first moon landing?

Chanin: We are not allowed to make projections or predictions. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Starship in the lead. But anything’s possible.

Scully: Starship V3 still needs to reach orbit, deploy payloads, and demonstrate reusability for both stages, along with in-space refueling. Essentially, the question of which conducts the first lunar landing likely comes down to a balance of execution timing and ambition. However, Blue Origin currently has a strong edge

Do you think SpaceX missing out on a “first” to Blue Origin would affect investor perceptions?

Chanin: I think it would be less problematic for SpaceX if they weren’t first, but any downside to SpaceX would likely be less than the benefit to Blue Origin.

Scully: While a Blue Origin “first” could create a short-term narrative shift, it’s unlikely to materially change the long-term perception of SpaceX, which is driven more by its existing scale, diversified business base, and how Starship could define the future of space operations.