World Cup 2026 Power Rankings before round of 16: Who’s No. 1?

We’re over three weeks into the 2026 FIFA World Cup and after a whirlwind group stage and tense round of 32, we’re down to just 16 teams left fighting it out for the chance to win sport’s ultimate prize on July 19.

All three co-hosts — the U.S., Mexico and Canada — are still alive in the competition, while superstars have delivered on their talent and several minnows have given us emotional moments we may never forget.

For a start, the race for the Golden Boot is being contested by several of the game’s greats. Argentina star Lionel Messi leads the way (7 goals), with France talisman Kylian Mbappé one behind, England‘s Harry Kane and Norway‘s Erling Haaland on five, and Brazil‘s Vinícius Júnior tied with three other players on four. It’s rare to get so many of the elite forwards in form at the same time, and with the world watching.

When it comes to underdogs in the round of 32, we had Paraguay dumping Germany out of the competition on penalties, Congo DR holding a 1-0 lead over England for over an hour before the Three Lions roared back to win, and Cape Verde coming within 10 minutes and an extra-time own goal of taking defending champs Argentina to penalties.

Deep breaths…

… so with 16 teams left, how does the field look?

As we did at several points before and during the World Cup — from 100 days out to after the group stage — we’re looking at how our global reporters feel about the tournament from a contenders vs. pretenders perspective. We asked our panel of 20 reporters to rank the remaining 16 teams from No. 1 (meaning the trophy is theirs) to No. 16 (the cool outsider’s pick for a tournament shock) and compiled their ballots into the collective ranking below.

– Messi, Argentina avoid upset for the ages vs. Cape Verde
– O’Hanlon: Grades for eliminated World Cup teams
– World Cup 2026: Fixtures, results and all coverage

Editor’s note: Voting was concluded before Saturday’s round of 16 began, with Canada facing Morocco. Our next Power Rankings will publish after the final on July 19 and will look ahead to the next tournament.

ESPN FC’s World Cup Power Rankings before the round of 16

1. FRANCE (no change)

– Group I: Defeated Senegal 2-0; defeated Iraq 3-0; defeated Norway 4-1
– Round-of-32: Defeated Sweden 3-0
– Round-of-16 opponent: Paraguay (Saturday, in Philadelphia)

It’s going to be hard to knock the 2022 runners-up out of the top spot as long as they continue to look so good, and the voters agree, awarding them 18 of 20 first-place votes.

The round of 32 was little trouble for Les Bleus after a gentle group stage: Mbappé scored twice to make it six goals in 2026, Michael Olise had two more assists to cement himself as the World Cup’s key creator, and a defense that has been largely unruffled kept its cool despite Sweden’s talented attack. (France comfortably won the xG battle too, 3.24 vs. 0.70, doing so with over 60% of the ball.) Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola and Aurélien Tchouaméni have also been exceptional.

If France make it past an obdurate Paraguay in Philadelphia on Saturday, they’d face either Canada or Morocco in Boston next Thursday. Beyond that, it’d be one of Portugal, Spain, USA or Belgium in the semis.

So it’s hard to see quite where they could screw this up … though this World Cup is full of surprises.

2. SPAIN (up 1)

– Group H: Drew 0-0 vs. Cape Verde; defeated Saudi Arabia 4-0; defeated Uruguay 1-0
– Round-of-32: Defeated Austria 3-0
– Round-of-16 opponent: Portugal (Monday, in Dallas)

Look out, world: Spain are starting to hum. While it’s true that Thursday’s round of 32 opponents offered minimal resistance, with La Roja completing twice as many passes and generation nearly five times more shots on goal — even putting 10 shots on target to Austria’s ZERO — you can only beat what’s in front of you, and Spain did exactly that. After a frustrating half hour of missed opportunities, Mikel Oyarzabal swept home his first goal of two on the night, defender Pedro Porro added another, and it was onward and upward.

Portugal are up next in the last-16, but on this form you’d bet on Spain to keep going. It says a lot that we’ve yet to see the best of Lamine Yamal at this World Cup due to injuries and lack of match fitness, yet his team are over halfway through the tournament without even conceding a goal.

3. ARGENTINA (down 1)

– Group J: Defeated Algeria 3-0; defeated Austria 2-0; defeated Jordan 3-1
– Round-of-32: Defeated Cape Verde 3-2 (after extra time)
– Round-of-16 opponent: Egypt (Tuesday, in Atlanta)

Amazingly, Argentina are still alive in this competition after Friday night’s game of the tournament against Cape Verde, in which the minnows rallied from 1-0 in the second half and 2-1 down in extra time until Diney Borges‘ 111th-minute own goal settled things once and for all. It seemed like a foregone conclusion when Messi scored his tournament-leading seventh goal midway through a dominant first half, but knockout soccer is different.

We should be writing more about Cape Verde here for how they pushed the 2022 champions to the brink of an historic upset, but Argentina dug deep, hung on, and now have a date with Egypt in Atlanta. It’s clear that this team need more than just Messi’s magic to progress, but with that wobble out the way, our voters (along with Spain and France, they were the only team receiving first-place votes) still believe them to be one of the teams to beat.

4. BRAZIL (up 1)

– Group C: Drew 1-1 vs. Morocco; defeated Haiti 3-0; defeated Scotland 3-0
– Round-of-32: Defeated Japan 2-1
– Round-of-16 opponent: Norway (Sunday, in New York/New Jersey)

Pre-tournament, Brazil were falling firmly outside the top tier in our voters’ minds considering the number of questions around them. Would Carlo Ancelotti have the right coaching touch to get the best out of a talented-but-temperamental, team? Would Vinicius Junior be able to lead this team as its star? Will veterans like Marquinhos and Casemiro have the legs and lungs to keep up? Will 34-year-old winger Neymar be a useful presence, or a problem after his injury issues?

So far, their results are doing the talking. After passing their toughest test with a draw against Morocco, they wrapped up easy wins against Haiti and Scotland to top the group, and then showed some impressive resilience in rallying from 1-0 down to beat a determined Japan side in the round of 32. They’ll also fancy their chances against Norway, given the production they’re getting from a varied attack and two elite defenders relishing the chance to keep striker Erling Haaland quiet.

Brazil may not be in the voters’ minds as a front-runner yet, but their results are doing the talking and fair play to Ancelotti for managing a side with tons of egos, media pressure and expectations from a passionate, demanding fanbase.

play

Could beetroot juice be England’s altitude remedy vs. Mexico?

5. ENGLAND (down 1)

– Group L: Defeated Croatia 4-2; drew 0-0 vs. Ghana; defeated Panama 2-0
– Round-of-32: Defeated Congo DR 2-1
– Round-of-16 opponent: Mexico (Sunday, in Mexico City)

Thomas Tuchel’s side are still alive at this World Cup, but they have been making heavy work of this competition after raising expectations with a 4-2 win over Croatia in their opening game. Despite having all the resources and a decent talent advantage over nearly everyone else in the 48-team field, they aren’t quite clicking in key areas as they need to be.

The one thing that is working so far is Harry Kane, and it was his two goals against Congo DR — the second a tremendous bit of fleet-footed skill inside the area — that turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 win. However, he’ll need some help: Noni Madueke, Djed Spence and Marcus Rashford didn’t look great in the round of 32, Bukayo Saka still doesn’t look back to his brilliant best, the defense have looked wobbly on the handful of times they have been challenged, and the midfield trio of Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson and Jude Bellingham need to move the ball with a bit more speed and purpose.

No good wing play and slow tempo makes England a tough watch. Can they find a higher gear on Sunday, and can they also navigate the furious cauldron — and altitude — of the Azteca when they take on Mexico this Sunday? Watch this space.

6. MOROCCO (up 2)

– Group C: Drew 1-1 vs. Brazil; defeated Scotland 1-0; defeated Haiti 4-2
– Round-of-32: Defeated Netherlands 3-2 on penalties (1-1 after extra time)
– Round-of-16 opponent: Canada (Saturday, in Houston)

Nobody is beating Morocco when it comes to resilience and effort, though this undersells just how good they’ve been at this World Cup. They outplayed Brazil in their Group C opener, and were comfortably better than the Dutch in the round of 32 despite needing spot-kicks to advance.

Their path to the quarterfinals looks reasonable enough, but they did get some luck with a 90th-minute equalizer in the last round. From here, the margins are only going to get tighter.

7. PORTUGAL (up 3)

– Group K: Drew 1-1 vs. Congo DR; defeated Uzbekistan 5-0; drew 0-0 vs. Colombia
– Round-of-32: Defeated Croatia 2-1
– Round-of-16 opponent: Spain (Monday, in Dallas)

They’re still alive in this competition, but the “Cristiano Ronaldo Show” has been disappointing viewing. Aside from an expectedly strong showing vs. Uzbekistan, Portugal’s Ronaldo-centric style — he gets all the set pieces and everyone tries to get him the ball so he can get the glory — hasn’t exactly been a smash hit.

In the end, they snuck past a dogged Croatia side thanks to Gonçalo Ramos‘ 94th-minute goal — Ramos, if you were wondering, replaced Ronaldo midway through the second half and ultimately made the difference.

It’s been said before, but Portugal’s chances of a deep World Cup run might well hinge upon their ability to use the 41-year-old Ronaldo as a member of the supporting cast, not the aging lead.

8. COLOMBIA (up 1)

– Group K: Defeated Uzbekistan 3-1; defeated Congo DR 1-0; drew 0-0 vs. Portugal
– Round-of-32: Defeated Ghana 1-0
– Round-of-16 opponent: Switzerland (Tuesday, in Vancouver)

Colombia keep winning. That’s it, that’s the update. With another gentle opponent in Ghana, Los Cafeteros scored early through Jhon Arias, kept generating chances (2.04 xG), limited Ghana to eight total shots (0 on target) and just eight touches in their penalty area.

Despite boasting all-action winger Luis Díaz and veteran magician James Rodríguez in the attacking third, Colombia are looking unfazed so far and with the Swiss up next, you’d fancy them to reach the final eight.

play

Nicol not convinced Brazil will beat Norway

9. NORWAY (up 2)

– Group I: Defeated Iraq 4-1; defeated Senegal 3-2; lost 4-1 vs. France
– Round-of-32: Defeated Ivory Coast 2-1
– Round-of-16 opponent: Brazil (Sunday, in New York/New Jersey)

Having a dominant striker and credible defense can get you a long way in international tournament, but how much further can it carry Norway? They didn’t have much of the ball against Ivory Coast in the round of 32, with Haaland barely touching the ball (27 times in 90 minutes) but scoring with just his second shot on target after fine work by Patrick Berg down the wing to deliver a low cross.

It wasn’t even a vintage finish, but a heavy first touch from Haaland that luckily bobbled into an empty net. Yet that is the Haaland factor: his general invisibility is tolerated for those huge moments that require his outsized contributions.

Brazil have two veteran defenders used to manhandling the best forwards in the game; Gabriel in particular knows what to do with Haaland, having bested him when Arsenal won the Premier League over Manchester City last season. So if ever there was a time for the likes of Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa (who scored a brilliant goal in the round of 32) and Alexander Sørloth to step up, now would be the time.

10. MEXICO (up 3)

– Group A: Defeated South Africa 2-0; defeated South Korea 1-0; defeated Czechia 3-0
– Round-of-32: Defeated Ecuador 2-0
– Round-of-16 opponent: England (Sunday, in Mexico City)

Mexico are one of just two teams still alive (along with Spain) that have yet to concede a goal; will that continue against England at the Azteca? El Tri made light work of Ecuador in the round of 32, scoring twice in the first half hour and not allowing a single shot on goal after half-time.

Winger Julián Quiñones (goal, assist) became the first Mexico player since 1986 (Manuel Negrete) to record both in a single World Cup game, and the first since 1998 (Luis Hernandez) to score in three World Cup games at a single tournament. Mexico continue to look stronger than the sum of their parts, and if the Azteca can bring its signature pandemonium on Sunday night — after some weather-aided kickoff time shenanigans — they can absolutely defeat England.

11. UNITED STATES (up 1)

– Group D: Defeated Paraguay 4-1; defeated Australia 2-0; lost 3-2 vs. Türkiye
– Round-of-32 opponent: Defeated Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-0
– Round-of-16 opponent: Belgium (Monday, in Seattle)

This team is playing brilliantly and manager Mauricio Pochettino has rarely put a foot wrong when it comes to tactical decisions or personnel shuffles, and the chance to avenge its round of 16 defeat to Monday’s opponents, Belgium, back in the 2014 World Cup will appeal massively to this ebullient, confident crew. That said, playing without their most talented goal scorer, the suspended Folarin Balogun, is going to be the team’s hardest test yet — arguably harder than any opponent it has faced to date.

Christian Pulisic has yet to make his mark on this World Cup following a calf injury in their opening game; figuring out how to get the most from him with (we think) Ricardo Pepi taking the center-forward position will require every bit of Poch’s ingenuity. We can also expect Belgium to offer more of a stress test for a defense that’s largely been untroubled; Tim Ream and Chris Richards will need to manage the movement and muscle of Romelu Lukaku, while a 35-year-old Kevin De Bruyne still has elite vision for a pass despite no longer having the legs to dominate games for a full 90 minutes.

The general thinking is that the U.S. has a better chance of reaching the quarterfinals by playing Belgium instead of Senegal in Seattle on Monday, but it can’t afford even a whisper of complacency against a side with so much experience.

12. BELGIUM (up 3)

– Group G: Drew 1-1 vs. Egypt; drew 0-0 vs. Iran; defeated New Zealand 5-1
– Round-of-32: Defeated Senegal 3-2 (after extra time)
– Round-of-16 opponent: USA (Monday, in Seattle)

Just when you think Belgium are out, they pull you back in. Down 2-0 to Senegal with less than five minutes remaining and key playmakers De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku already subbed off, Lukaku and Youri Tielemans scored within three minutes to send the game to extra time, which set the stage for a dramatic, VAR-assisted 120th-minute penalty to send them into the next round.

Were they the better team? No. Were they deserving? Absolutely. This is the World Cup; it’s survive and advance by any means necessary. They’ll relish a rematch with the USA — Belgium knocked the Americans out in 2014 with a 2-1, extra-time win in which Tim Howard made 16 saves to keep his side in it — even though the co-hosts will feel like favorites. Just don’t bet against De Bruyne & Co. to find another gear when their backs are against the wall; after all, we saw it in the last round.

13. SWITZERLAND (new)

– Group B: Drew 1-1 vs. Qatar; defeated Bosnia & Herzegovina 4-1; defeated Canada 2-1
– Round-of-32: Defeated Algeria 2-0
– Round-of-16 opponent: Colombia (Tuesday, in Vancouver)

The Swiss are quietly sneaking through this competition with three straight wins since an opening day draw with lowly Qatar. Even though there has been a ton of drama and upsets all over the bracket, you’re getting none of that with Switzerland. Granit Xhaka continues to set the example in midfield, a defense with tons of top-tier experience is limiting opponents to low-quality shots, and a youthful attack built around Dan Ndoye and Johan Manzambi is setting the table nicely for Breel Embolo to benefit up front.

Our voters aren’t super impressed, but it’s hard to argue that this hasn’t been a great tournament for them even if their run ends in the round of 16.

play

Hutchison: Egypt will need Salah to step up in World Cup round of 16

14. EGYPT (new)

– Group G: Drew 1-1 vs. Belgium; defeated New Zealand 3-1; drew 1-1 vs. Iran
– Round-of-32: Defeated Australia 4-2 on penalties (1-1 after extra time)
– Round-of-16 opponent: Argentina (Tuesday, in Atlanta)

Mohamed Salah & Co. are still rolling after going to spot-kicks with Australia, making it to the last-16 with one win and three draws. It’s fair to say the round of 32 scoreline flattered the Aussies, with Omar Marmoush among many to waste scoring chances after Emam Ashour‘s early goal. You’d expect Argentina to roll over them on Tuesday but both teams are coming off extra time games and have little time to regroup.

Counting in their favor is the fact that Salah is generating chances — he’s tied for the World Cup lead with Belgium’s Leandro Trossard, on 16 — despite having just one goal and one assist so far. Also, defender Mohamed Hany will want to avoid scoring at his own end: he’s the second player all-time to score two own goals at a single World Cup.

15. CANADA (new)

– Group B: Drew 1-1 vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina; defeated Qatar 6-0; lost 2-1 vs. Switzerland
– Round-of-32: Defeated South Africa 1-0
– Round-of-16 opponent: Morocco (Saturday, in Houston)

It’s wonderful that (for a little while longer, anyway) we have all three co-hosts still alive at the World Cup. Canada’s path has been a stolid one, anchored by manager/quote machine Jesse Marsch and a decent counter attack. They snuck past a lively South Africa side in the last round via a 92nd-minute goal, ceding the bulk of possession and wasting a string of scoring chances until Stephen Eustáquio‘s stunning mid-range volley.

Morocco will be a much tougher proposition, but as we’ve seen in this tournament so far, shocks can be found in the most unlikely places.

16. PARAGUAY (new)

– Group D: Lost 4-1 vs. USA; defeated Turkiye 1-0; drew 0-0 vs. Australia
– Round-of-32: Defeated Germany 4-3 on penalties (1-1 after extra time)
– Round-of-16 opponent: France (Saturday, in Philadelphia)

Last but definitely not least, La Albirroja have grown in confidence since their opening game blowout against the co-hosts in Los Angeles. Stubborn in defense and with enough attacking flair to catch opponents off-guard, knocking Germany out on penalties says as much about the state of Die Mannschaft as it does Paraguay. Can they do something similar to France and keep their dream run going?

Editor’s note: Our voting panel includes Alex Kirkland, Julien Laurens, Damian Didonato, Armando Neria, Mark Ogden, Bill Connelly, James Olley, Lizzy Becherano, Rob Dawson, Ryan O’Hanlon, Jeff Carlisle, Gab Marcotti, Tom Hamilton, Cesar Hernandez, Sam Borden, James Tyler, Sam Marsden, Beth Lindop, Ed Dove, and Jon Molyneux-Carter.