Unfavorable weather and above-average food prices drive Crisis outcomes

Through September, poor households in the Dry Corridor are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as the lean season peaks amid depleted food stocks, prolonged market dependence, continued above-average staple food prices, and constrained agricultural production and labor opportunities. Delayed and disrupted primera harvest and postrera planting resulting from below-average rainfall, above-average temperatures, and a prolonged canícula are expected to reduce crop yields and agricultural labor demand. Rising fuel prices throughout the lean season are expected to maintain elevated transportation and agricultural input costs, such as fertilizers, resulting in smallholder farmers further delaying planting for the primera into July. As a result of further constrained production and household purchasing power, poor households will continue relying on unsustainable coping strategies to meet food needs through the end of the lean season. Beginning in October, outcomes in the Dry Corridor are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as the arrival of the below-average primera harvest increases food availability and reduces dependence on market purchases. At the same time, seasonal labor demand associated with the coffee harvest is expected to improve household income from October onward, supported by favorable coffee prices and average wage rates. By November, additional labor opportunities for the apante/postrera tardía planting are expected to provide additional but limited income, as continued El Niño conditions will likely constrain production prospects. Despite these seasonal post-harvest improvements, primera and postrera harvests are expected to remain below average in rainfed areas, sustaining poor households’ reliance on sustainable coping strategies, such as purchasing food on credit or borrowing money, to meet essential non-food needs through January 2027.  

In the Pacific coastal region, poor households in Choluteca are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September due to continued dependence on market purchases during the lean season, elevated staple food and transportation costs, and seasonal livelihood disruptions from recurrent weather shocks. Although households will access some seasonal employment linked to shrimp production through July, income is expected to remain below average and insufficient to offset rising living costs, including food, transportation, energy, housing, and water. Following the fishing disruptions caused by Tropical Storm Cristina, continued erratic rainfall and an above-average Pacific hurricane season are expected to increase the risk of localized flooding and temporary interruptions to fishing and shrimping activities throughout the rest of the rainy season. Poor households that depend on artisanal fishing are likely to be particularly affected, particularly in flood-prone municipalities of Choluteca, where flooding can disrupt labor opportunities. From October to January, seasonal improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected, driven by increased food availability from staple harvests and increasing labor opportunities, including employment in melon farms, shrimping activities, and sea salt production that will resume in November. However, continued reliance on sustainable coping strategies will be necessary to meet essential non-food needs as households in Choluteca are expected to remain highly dependent on market purchases while above-average staple food and transportation costs continue to constrain purchasing power.  

Across the Caribbean coast, including Gracias a Dios, poor households are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the projection period, given below-average staple production and prolonged market dependence. Poor subsistence households are expected to remain highly market dependent during the peak lean season between June and August, as food stocks remain depleted, increasing household dependence on market purchases while elevated staple food prices continue to constrain purchasing power. Forecast below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures are expected to reduce primera production for smallholder farmers and result in lower household yields for immediate own consumption. However, poor households in these areas benefit from more diversified livelihoods, including fishing, hunting, and wild foods, which help support food consumption when agricultural production is poor. Beginning in August, labor opportunities associated with industrial fishing and diving activities will resume and are expected to increase income through January, helping offset poor staple harvests. Although most poor households expected to maintain adequate food consumption, they will remain unable to fully meet essential non-food needs without relying on unsustainable coping strategies.  

Most other rural areas of Honduras are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January, as below-average harvests, elevated food prices, and continued pressure on household purchasing power are expected to limit improvements in food security outcomes, even as seasonal harvests and agricultural labor opportunities increase toward the end of the year. As households face the peak of the lean season with already depleted food stocks and prolonged market dependence, they will remain increasingly dependent on market purchases amid above-average staple food prices. While most households will be able to meet their minimum food needs, many will continue to forgo non-food expenditures or rely on sustainable coping strategies to do so.  

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will persist through January in major urban centers, the northern Caribbean coast, and in the Bay Islands, as more diversified income sources, stronger market access, and greater year-round employment opportunities are expected to allow most households to meet both their food and non-food needs despite continued elevated prices.