Erratic rainfall and cyclone season drive expanded Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

National

Widespread area-level Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are currently observed across much of Madagascar, with small pockets of displaced households experiencing more severe acute food insecurity following tropical cyclones Ewetse, Fytia, and Gezani. 

Eastern areas 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in Toamasina and its surroundings, where households are experiencing significant cyclone-related displacement and livelihood loss. Humanitarian food assistance and cash assistance are currently supporting 37,949 households in two Toamasina districts, approximately 26 percent of the total population. Despite receiving humanitarian assistance, livelihoods are likely to face protracted livelihood recovery due to displacement, high shelter repair costs, and damage to rice fields and aquaculture. Further, widespread reliance on borrowing to meet basic food needs indicates a challenging context for poor households. Despite the challenging conditions, outcomes would not be worse in the absence of humanitarian food assistance and local markets have returned to normal operations.

Cyclone Gezani resulted in 62 confirmed deaths and initially displaced approximately 20,000 people. While field-level assessments remain ongoing, available information indicates that urban and peri-urban households — particularly those heavily market-reliant for food access — are facing the most acute short-term disruptions due to transport constraints and localized supply interruptions. Although markets have already reopened, households are resorting to borrowing and purchasing food on credit. According to FEWS NET market monitoring, local and imported rice prices in Toamasina have increased by 3 and 8 percent, respectively, in the two weeks since cyclone Gezani made landfall. 

Cyclone-related destruction and evacuations have disrupted markets, agricultural labor, petty trade, and fishing activities during the peak of lean season. These losses, and costly attempts to replant or purchase agricultural labor, are expected to reduce main and green harvest prospects between February and June, further extending the time necessary for households to recover. Additionally, household purchasing power is severely eroded as resources typically allocated to market purchases are redirected towards securing agricultural inputs and new lodging. 

Humanitarian food assistance and cash assistance are currently supporting 37,949 households in two Toamasina districts, approximately 26 percent of the total population. Displacement, the destruction of productive assets, reduced purchasing power, and widespread reliance on borrowing to meet basic food needs reflect a challenging context for poor households.

The Grand South 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing across much of the Grand South amid the peak of the lean season. After consecutive inadequate agricultural seasons, poor households have largely exhausted food stocks and are heavily dependent on market purchases amid seasonally high staple food prices and below-average wage rates. Nearly all cereals, pulses, sugar, and meat consumed in January were sourced from markets, and over 90 percent of tubers, vegetables, fruits, and oil were also purchased. Some households relied on credit or gifts for food access. In previous years, households would typically be more reliant on food stocks during this time. Poor households are selling productive assets such as livestock or incurring debt to finance seed purchases, thereby increasing financial vulnerability at the peak of the lean season.

Food consumption patterns remain moderately inadequate overall, with most households only consuming cereals, tubers, or cowpeas frequently. Dietary diversity is limited, with meat, fish, and milk consumed infrequently. Households are reducing meal portions and frequencies, consuming immature crops, and consuming atypically high amounts of wild foods, such as green watermelon and red cactus. Consumption of wild red cacti, as opposed to other wild foods, is notable, as it is known to cause diarrhea and abdominal discomfort when consumed in large quantities. 

Nutrition indicators show expected seasonal deterioration. Admissions for acute malnutrition typically increase during the February-March lean season. Preliminary facility-based data from Tsihombe, in the Grand South, indicate January admissions are near seasonal averages. Broader screening results across southern districts remain pending; however, further deterioration is anticipated in areas currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

The Grand Southeast: 

Across most of the Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. Localized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in remote and flood-prone districts such as Ikongo, Nosy Varika, and Befotaka, where market access constraints, limited livelihood diversification, and cumulative weather shocks have eroded household resilience.

Above-average rainfall during the first half of the rainy season supported agricultural labor demand, partially offsetting the impacts of depleted household food stocks. However, wages remain below average due to weakened hiring capacity among better-off households after consecutive production shocks. Off-season rice harvests in December temporarily improved rice availability; nevertheless, local rice prices remain above average in several markets due to elevated clove prices and localized supply constraints (clove prices dictate the prices of all products in the markets following the harvests). Many farmers have also reduced their crop area to cope with constrained access to seeds. Reductions in crop areas decrease the demand for agricultural labor and place additional stress on livelihoods and household income. 

Poor households are increasingly reliant on wild tubers and seasonal fruits (banana, jackfruit, breadfruit) to supplement food consumption. Additional income sources include charcoal production, petty trade, and informal mining, but earnings remain limited due to competition and market saturation.