Parts of Somalia Face Risk of Famine if Harvest Fails Amid Declining Humanitarian Aid

Washington, D.C. — The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is warning of a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in parts of southern Somalia where repeated poor harvests, escalating conflict, and high prices are driving severe acute food insecurity amid historically low and declining levels of humanitarian assistance.

In an Alert issued Thursday, FEWS NET warned that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur in crop-dependent agropastoral areas of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo between June and September if the ongoing April to June gu rains perform poorly during critical crop development stages or end earlier than forecasted.

“Households in these areas are still struggling to recover from the historic 2020–2023 drought, and many have now endured multiple consecutive seasons of crop losses, declining livestock productivity, and reduced income opportunities,” FEWS NET spokesperson Hannah Button said. “Poor households have extremely limited capacity to cope with another failed harvest, especially as food and fuel prices remain exceptionally high and humanitarian assistance is expected to drop to levels even lower than what we’re currently seeing.”

While FEWS NET’s most likely scenario assumes the gu rains improve enough to support a partial harvest and temporarily stabilize conditions, there is a credible alternative scenario in which poor rainfall leads to another failed harvest. In that scenario, FEWS NET warns the likelihood of large-scale loss of lives and livelihoods would be high.

Acute malnutrition has already reached critical levels in Bay Region amid constrained food access, high disease levels, and declining health and nutrition services. In Buurhakaba District, acute malnutrition levels have already surpassed the nutrition threshold associated with Famine (IPC Phase 5).

Consecutive poor rainy seasons previously led to Famine (IPC Phase 5) in southern Somalia in 2011 and likely would have resulted in Famine again in 2016/17 and 2022/23 without large-scale humanitarian assistance. Current levels of humanitarian food assistance and health and nutrition support are already historically low and are expected to further decline after June, increasing concern about the potential for outcomes to rapidly worsen.

“If this harvest fails, Famine could rapidly emerge in these areas,” Button said. “The next several weeks are critical. Without sufficient rainfall to support crop development, poor households would lose their most important food and income sources at a time when coping capacity and social support systems are severely strained.”